Research included in a new report by the Network Client Business Group (NCBG) clearly identifies the dawning of the fourth wave of enterprise computing. The report, "The Enterprise Network Computer, Market Opportunity or Illusion?", concludes that Network Computers and Network Appliances will be the interactive components of the next wave. The 150 page analysis reviews the problems of current generation computing and shows how the next wave is being driven by changes in user needs and computing technology.

The First Wave- Mainframes. Mainframe computing environments were characterized by centrally managed IS functions, host centric computing and very structured applications. Systems were usually focused on the counting, recording and reporting functions needed to manage the paper work of a large enterprise. Although some graphic stations were sold for engineering applications, the desktop was dominated by fixed function display terminals.

The Second Wave- Mini-computers. The mini-computer era encouraged individual departments to use IT in new ways. Users added applications like process management, laboratory measurement, and departmental operations to their IS activities. Departmental users were able to use minicomputers to process data that was specific to their operations. Lower costs pushed the mini-computer into a broader market of small to mid-size businesses. Larger users found ways to interconnect these mini systems with the mainframe for remote job entry applications. Computing architectures, however, remained largely host centric. Operators used fixed function terminals and graphic stations for interactive systems access.

The Third Wave- Personal Computers. With the introduction of the PC, department managers were able to augment the character mode applications of legacy systems with newly minted PC based personal productivity tools. PCs were used with locally stored applications and data. LAN based client/server systems have been used to tie these islands of computing to legacy mainframe and minicomputer systems. New enterprise applications have been split between the server and the PC. It is a desktop centric world. Computer ownership becomes an objective and users want the latest technology. Everything is there; my applications, my data, my computer. I am embroiled in the technology and the maintenance of the system.

The Fourth Wave- The fourth wave of computing is about information content, data distribution and personal communication. It is a dynamic network centric environment that changes every day. A killer application is a network site that gives me an easy way to get things done: find a file, execute a transaction, share ideas with a customer, collaborate with a co-worker, respond to E-Mail, apply for benefits and so on. The really important software is the software that gives me connection and processing. The desktop becomes a tool for task completion. I no longer care about its technology, nor do I want to maintain it. Give those problems to someone else.

The fourth wave continues two key trends:

A dramatic increase in the number of computers sold. Just as the key punch and terminal operations of the mainframe era gave way to the departmental operators of the minicomputer age, the advent of the PC expanded the operator base to include almost all enterprise information system users. In the fourth wave, the reach of the enterprise computing environment will expand once again- to include virtually all employees as well as customers and collaborative users who are outside the enterprise.

Computing systems become more reliable and user friendly. The minicomputer was easier to use than the mainframe. The PC could be used by information workers throughout the enterprise. In the fourth wave, even workers outside the usual information systems environment will be able to interact with enterprise applications. The trend to ease of use and solid reliability will continue.

The current friction between third and fourth wave advocates is understandable:

Those with an invested interest in third wave technology fear a loss of market share. Historically, however, the market share lost to the next generation has been trivial in comparison with the stimulation of new application opportunities. Bringing lower cost computer technology to the user has always generated increased product demand.

In a similar manner, those with an invested interest in current generation technology have believed that they can use it to satisfy the new wave needs of the user. But as NCBG's report points out, the PC centric client/server paradigm of the third wave can not be extended into the network centric systems environment of the fourth wave.

Ron Cooke, author of the report, commented on this point: "Connectivity changes everything. Personal computing is becoming personal communication. If the desktop is to become a reliable tool for voice, data and video communication, then the desktop can no longer be an isolated island of computing. Whether used for work group collaboration or intranet access, it becomes a communication device that is only useful if it is consistently available to the content provider. The model for this paradigm shift is the telephone network."

NCBG's report clearly shows why the PC centric client/server computing model will be replaced by the products and services of the server centric fourth wave. For more information on the report, including a full description and table of contents, check out www.ncbg.com. The report is now available through Chuck McLaughlin at NCBG for $2,950.00. He can be reached by telephone: (415) 323 7165, by FAX: (415) 323 7744, or by e-mail: chuck@ncbg.com.