Java has buzz, like a hot concept car or a Spielberg movie in the making.

Sure, Java is a computer language. And previous computer languages, such as Fortran, COBOL and C++, have sent most people into glassy-eyed comas of incomprehension.

But Java has become something more. It could change the whole idea of what computing is about, the way the personal computer did in the 1980s, analysts say. It could shake up the industry, turning Microsoft into an obsolete clunker - a la IBM in the 1980s - and making Sun Microsystems, Java's inventor, the next software giant.

The Java buzz is going far beyond the computer industry. Neighbors talk about it on street corners. CEOs are asking whether their companies should be doing something with Java, even if they don't know what.

In San Francisco this week, the buzz has the frenzy of a kicked beehive. About 9,000 software developers have come to learn about Java at the second annual JavaOne conference. If Java is going to live up to its hype, it will start here. Netscape Communications, IBM, Apple Computer and even Microsoft have come, along with entrepreneurs from as far as Melbourne, Australia. Fans are buying $350 Java leather jackets, $49 Java denim shirts and $14 Java toddler T-shirts. San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown proclaimed this "Java Week" in the city.

"There seems to be something special about Java," says Alan Strait, a Denver-based programmer at the conference. "It opens up a whole new world."

Microsoft CEO Bill Gates, who has an interest in cooling off Java, sloughs it off as just another programming language. In some ways it is. Like programming languages before it, Java is a collection of code and tools that can be used to create applications software, such as a spreadsheet, a game or a World Wide Web site. But Java is easier to learn and use than the current mainstay language for PCs, C++.

"Java allows programmers to write code with fewer errors," says Cornelius Willis of Microsoft's developer relations group. "It makes the average C++ programmer more productive." Railroad company CSX plans to use Java-based software to manage the schedules of 2,000 to 3,000 trains a day. It figures that Java has cut the cost of writing and deploying software by 50%.

Ultimate compatibility

But productivity is just the beginning. The excitement about Java centers on its ability to work on anything that has a computer chip in it. That could be a PC, a Macintosh, a Cray supercomputer, a Ford car or a Krups coffee pot. Write a piece of software once and use it almost anywhere. Developers like to compare Java to gasoline. It makes a car go whether the car is a Mercedes-Benz, a Ford or a Honda.

Corporations love it. They often have many different kinds of computers and struggle to make them work together. Half of major corporations surveyed by Forrester Research are funding Java projects and nearly all expect Java to be a major part of their computing operations within two years. Schools, which have trouble affording new PCs, could run the latest Java programs even on old computers. In contrast, much of the newest software today is written for PCs that run Microsoft's Windows 95 operating system. And to run Windows 95 most efficiently, schools need the newest Pentium-class PCs.

Similarly, consumers should love Java because it can extend the life of their $2,000 PCs or allow them to buy less-expensive, less-powerful machines and still run new software. In fact, Java is the key to creating a market for low-end machines, often called network computers, or NCs.

Therein dwells the threat to Microsoft and Intel, which dominate today's PC market.

The arrival of Java means there are 340 million existing computers that can run Java programs, while fewer than 100 million PCs can run Windows 95, notes Michael Cowpland, CEO of software company Corel. The growing business - the one that would attract developers writing hot new software - has long been the Windows market. Soon, it might not be. "The current cash cow is Windows 95 software," Cowpland says. "The emerging market is Java."

Developers have other reasons to move toward Java. They can write software once instead of creating one version for PCs, one for Macs, another for hand-held devices like the Sharp Zaurus, and so on. That saves them time and money while expanding their market.

If Java is successful, Microsoft and Intel will see their mighty grip on the industry slip. "It would change the economics of the computer industry," says analyst Dick Shaffer.

Battle lines over Java

Within the industry, Java is setting off a war. Sun's provocative CEO, Scott McNealy, constantly pushes the idea that Java is a Microsoft killer. That has broad appeal among Microsoft's many foes. McNealy's chief ally has been Oracle CEO Larry Ellison. And IBM is throwing its full weight behind Java. Oracle and IBM would love to see Microsoft derailed.

The war worries some people in the industry. "There is clearly a set of forces that view Java as a savior" from Microsoft, says Jim Breyer, managing partner of venture capital firm Accel. "In some ways, that could occur. But that should not be the underlying premise behind pushing Java." It could backfire if companies overhype Java to win converts. If Java falls short, disappointed users might abandon it.

And Microsoft is not sitting still. The company has embraced Java. Some say it is absconding with it. Microsoft is offering its developers a choice. They can create pure Java programs that run on anything. Or they can use a version of Java that Microsoft has tweaked so it can run in harmony with Windows. Microsoft says it's just being prudent. Sun's McNealy says Microsoft is trying to divide and conquer the Java forces. "The second you break 100% pure Java, you are not Java anymore. You are Windows," he grumbles.

Microsoft's Willis shoots back: "We have a concept in the industry called FUD: fear, uncertainty and doubt. Sun is spreading FUD." Microsoft, it should be noted, is often accused of being a champion FUD spreader.

From toy to titan?

As the CEOs duke it out, developers in the trenches are working to make Java happen.

Now, Java is a toy to many computer users. Little Java programs can be packaged in a Web site. When a PC taps that site, the program is downloaded into the PC along with the site's graphics and text. The little Java program is often an animation or stock ticker. Web search site WebCrawler is running a Java ticker that shows some of the bizarre searches recently typed into the service. Click on a passing keyword and see search results someone else asked for.

Coming soon will be heartier Java uses on the Web. Today, it's a pain to book a flight on a non-Java travel Web site. You fill out a form saying when and where you want to fly, send the form back to the host computer, then get results, repeating the time-eating process until you find what you want.

With Java, a program could be dumped into your PC containing all the up-to-the-minute flights and fares between the cities requested. You'd find the flight you want by searching the program, which would be on your computer's hard drive, making it much faster than doing the back-and-forth on the Web. When you settle on flights, you'd send the request for a reservation back to the host computer. The Java program that had jumped into your PC would disappear.

Nokia plans to put Java into cellular phones. A real estate agent, for instance, could use a Java-enabled cell phone to dial into the Multiple Listings Service from a car. LG Semicon, part of Lucky Goldstar, is putting Java chips into TV sets. Rockwell Collins, a modem maker, wants to put Java in smart cards and watches. "I don't know of any language that has grown at this pace," says Larry Hagerty, senior systems engineer for GTE, which is working on consumer Java applications. "It's hard to keep up with it."

In the future, Java fans say, all kinds of Java programs will reside on networks. No need to keep a word processor on your laptop, hogging memory. When you need to write something, download a basic Java-based word processor from the network. If you need something special, like a spell checker, download that. When you're done working, the program disappears. The next time you need it, you'll download the latest version. You'll never be stuck with obsolete software.

How real are those scenarios? The next year or so will be telling. McNealy says Java, now 2 years old, is like a child in its "terrible twos" - just coming into its own but with a long way to go. Java programs still have some problems. They often have fewer features and run more slowly than programs honed for a certain platform, like Windows or Mac. Some Java programs take a long time to download over slow phone lines to homes, a hurdle for users.

But the rush of activity should speed Java past the uncertainties. "Most of the best entrepreneurs are basing much of their product development on Java," says Breyer, the venture capitalist. It typically takes two years from the time he sees business plans to when products are on the market. "In the second half of 1998 and into 1999, we'll see compelling and, in some cases, revolutionary applications," he says.

At the JavaOne conference, prototypes of some applications - and tools to create more - line the identical red booths occupied by companies from IBM to 300-employee Wind River Systems. To attendees walking through, Java-based products look like a lot more than hype. "They may not be ready for prime time," says Chris Capps, a programmer from North Carolina, "but everybody has one coming."

By Kevin Maney and Julie Schmit

Source: USA TODAY