Chapter 1: Of caffeine and carrots

I have written about Java a couple of times in the past, and in the intervening months, it has begun to look like a run-away freight train. Every day someone announces something about Java, and the world greets it with open arms and open checkbooks - particularly investors.

This rampant enthusiasm is very interesting. While Java is an excellent language and has some features that make it a compelling vehicle for cross- platform development in client/server and Web environments, that's not why its so powerful. It's the competitive dynamics that surround the language that are really fascinating.

The carrot for vendors in this marketplace is the opportunity to weaken Microsofts stranglehold on PC standards.

Chapter 2: In which Bill gets a message

Out in the computer industry, there are one or two companies that don't care for Microsoft too much. All right, all right, there are hundreds, but the real point is that until Java, these guys were all blowing smoke. Since the start of the PC revolution, they have had no tool with which to erode Microsoft's hegemony of the market and standards. Then along came the Internet, then the World Wide Web, and then Suns Java.

By the time Java had become so powerful, and done so with amazing speed, Microsoft had no choice but to follow. Although it tried to manipulate the market as it had done successfully so many times before, perhaps for the first time in its corporate life, Microsoft wound up toeing someone else's line.

Now that they have a rallying flag to follow, sporting the image of a steaming coffee cup, all of Microsoft's enemies have started to form armies.

Leading the pack that wants to rip out Microsoft's throat is the industry's pinup vendor, Netscape. Following close behind in the baying, bloodthirsty pack are the likes of Novell and Sun (now thick as thieves). Then there's IBM pouring a gazillion dollars (or thereabouts) into Java- related development and porting the language to every computer system it sells.

Alliances between Sun and just about anyone who has the vaguest reason to dislike Microsoft are the order of the day. And to top it all off, SunSoft, (the division of Sun that owns Java) has just effectively pulled the rug out from under Microsoft by making the specifications for the Java Virtual Machine (the platform-specific run-time for Java) incompatible with Microsoft's current implementation.

The message to Bill is that this is a market he can't own, and a lot of companies will go out of their way to ensure he never gets a chance.

Chapter 3: He who lives by the sword

Is this a good thing? Is it in our interests to see Microsoft lose control? I would argue that to the degree Microsoft's plans have been thwarted so far, it is very good for the market and, strangely, very good for Microsoft.

Losing control of certain aspects of the market, most notably standards, will sharpen Microsoft's competitive instincts - it will make the company try harder. This is good because challenging Microsoft has been such a daunting prospect that most vendor offensive forays have had little impact.

For the market, Java is a new stimulus and is perhaps the first truly generalized, multivendor, cross-platform technology we've ever had.

This technology provides a new way of thinking about computers and the markets they serve and creates new niches that will enrich end-user choices and drive prices down.

This promises to be a story that will rival War and Peace for length and complexity. Java will force major changes in computer and network technology and architectures over the course of this year and, for a change, the real winners will be IT groups.

Java: Soul of the new IT or spawn of the devil? Learned philosophical treatises to nwcolumn@gibbs.com or lecture me at (800) 622-1108, Ext. 504.

Source: Network World