For 20-year-olds, the next decade of human development is about finding oneself, beginning a life's work, and-maybe-settling down. Today, 20 years after PCs were conceived in California garages, a similar maturation is under way for a technology that has exceeded every expectation.

So, what's ahead? InformationWeek asked leading industry executives to share their visions on the future of PC computing, if not for an entire decade, at least for the next couple of years.

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Much talk lately on the future of computing has involved reducing desktop computing costs. But how can one sort out the competing visions and find the path to a less-costly computing future?

A useful exercise is to ask what makes today's desktop computing model so expensive. Then, ask whether there are technologies that can address those factors.

The annual expense for a typical desktop computer running a standard set of business productivity applications has been estimated to be $8,000 to $12,000. It can be hard to bring down the price with today's one-size-fits-all approach to computing. Exacerbating these problems is the demand to provide ever more users with basic computing resources.

But there are technologies that can trim costs while permitting IT managers to expand access. These new solutions have been made possible by the emergence of a universal platform and associated tools.

The platform that has emerged to make these solutions possible is the Internet and intranets. The associated technologies are based on the Java programming language. On the hardware side, there are the less-costly, lower-maintenance NCs, plus significant increases in bandwidth the NCs require.

These developments have resulted in the thin client, a desktop computing model designed to meet the goals of reducing costs and expanding computing resources. In evaluating whether a thin-client solution will help, IT managers should consider several key criteria.

Application size is critical. Effective thin-client applications must be extremely compact-500 Kbytes or less-to assure quick delivery and robust performance over a network.

Functionality should be task-focused. Compact productivity tools - or applets - should give users basic features they will use most of time. Thin-client software should be modular, so users can add functionality.

Applets should be easily connected to one another and to data that may reside on legacy systems. This will let developers build more-powerful network- centric applications. Ease of use is essential. For users who have had little PC experience, a well-designed interface reduces training costs.

Cross-platform portability is key. The ultimate benefit of this new computing model is that, thanks to Java, organizations can avoid bringing the industry's traditional platform incompatibility problems into the future.

Pure Java-based tools make it possible to meet the requirements of IT managers seeking to build powerful network-centric applications, cut deployment and maintenance costs, and provide more people with easy-to-learn computing. Java and NCs offer a powerful solution that can be easily customized to meet the needs both of organizations and of end users while providing significant cost efficiencies.

And with Java taking off so quickly, we can look forward to a day when the tools on our desktops will service organizations, not the other way around.

Source: Information Week