As I See It...
A weekly commentary
by James E. Felton
February 3, 1997
Destination: Digital
How many of us would just jump in a car, and take off without any idea of where we are going? Oh, sure, an occasional pleasure cruise can be fun. But few people, or businesses could afford to continually operate this way. For most of us it is important to know our destination, and plan a route to get there.
Nevertheless, it seems to me that up to now few people have really thought about where this "digital revolution" is going. And few people have really put this so-called revolution into it's proper historical perspective. As a result the computer industry is going a hundred different directions at once, and most of us just watch for signs, and choose a direction as if we were choosing a race horse.
Until about a year ago most of those "signs" pointed to PCs. And as a result most people just followed the signs, and bought PCs. Then, suddenly, Larry Ellison put a "fork" in the road with his inexpensive "Network Computers" concept. Few people could argue that they wouldn't prefer to pay less for computers. So, the PC industry just attacked the concept as a plan that wouldn't work.
Well, slowly, but surely it IS beginning to work so the PC industry is looking for other ways to keep people on the PC path. The best tactic they've come up with so far is the "scare tactic" that appeals to the "mob mentality". NCs will take away your freedom they cry! We've been down this road before! The NC will take away your right to be non-productive at work! The NC will be slow, and boring! It's a dumb terminal!
Fortunately, I believe that PC users are much smarter than the average mob. That being the case, it should be fairly easy to convince PC users that this is just a strategy concocted by the PC industry to provoke them into opposing (and thereby delaying) the future of computing.
Lets put a little historical perspective on this...
Try to imagine what would have happened if cassette tape players had been developed before radio. If VCRs, and camcorders had been developed before broadcast TV. A whole industry would have developed to sell you programs on tape. And you could record your own tapes, to communicate your ideas to others. Well, that would be great for the industry, but would it be the best thing for you? You'd own your programs. You could use them any time you wanted. You'd have plenty of freedom. But you wouldn't have access to a fraction of the information that you have access to with TV, and radio. And there would be a huge difference in cost even if (pre-recorded) tapes were subsidized by commercial advertising. It simply makes far more sense to send information through the air (or a wire) than it does to send it in boxes on trucks.
Now, try to imagine that the majority of people are used to sending, and receiving their information on tape. Suddenly, some Larry Ellison type comes along suggesting that we should send, and receive this information through the air (or wire). The "tape" industry would naturally be very upset! After all, a change like this could suddenly change the fortunes of many large, established corporations.
As I see it this is exactly what we are talking about when we compare Network Computers to Personal Computers. The Digital Revolution is about calculating, and communicating. Who could argue that it isn't far more efficient to do either when we share resources? Who could argue that it isn't far more efficient to send an e-mail than a typed, printed, stuffed in an envelope letter that must be stamped, picked up by the Postman, loaded on a truck, processed at several mail facilities, loaded on another truck...need I go on? Based on history I would say that eventually the computer industry will be vital public utility. And the sooner we all realize that is where we are going, the sooner we will all get there!
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